The Strait of Hormuz Attack: A Market Signal, Not a Geopolitical Event
The Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 1% on an oil tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz. The market's reaction is the data point. The attack itself is just the trigger. A 1% move in a major index is not panic. It is a calculated repricing of risk. It tells me that the market, as a distributed consensus mechanism, has decided this event is a contained incident, not a systemic failure. But is that consensus correct? Or is it a mispricing of tail risk, a flaw in the market's own logic?
